Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . It responded with an unprecedented wave of . The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Something went wrong, please try again later. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. they wont need to invade, they will own us. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. (including Australia). Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. [5] Andrew Browne. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. [6] Paul Monk. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. [9] Ezra Vogel. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. China to INVADE Australia? He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Just $5 a month. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. From the big bad Toniorists. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. 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Agree with all comments . Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. This is the real war. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. There ya go. [8] Gabriel Kolko. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. I must admit I skimmed this piece. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. 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